Playoff Scenarios -- Week 13

EASTERN CONFERENCE


Champaign Toast
Record: 9-2-1 (1st place, Eastern Division)
Remaining Schedule: @Heat (2-8-2)
Conference Record: 5-2-1
Power Ranking: 1st (Off: 2nd, Def: 1st)
Tie Breakers Held: Beavers, Meth Addicts (head-to-head); Sasquatch, Baconators (conference record)
What needs to Happen: Eastern Conference Champs
Outlook: Took care of business last week to clinch the division. Headed for a 1st round bye and the Eastern Conference title game.


Mount Savage Sasquatch
Record: 8-4 (2nd place, Eastern Division)
Remaining Schedule: Burger Kings (6-5-1)
Conference Record: 4-4
Power Ranking: 2nd (Off: 1st, Def: 7th)
Tie Breakers Held: Beavers (conference record)
What needs to Happen: Clinched 2nd place in the Eastern Conference
Outlook: Needed a handful of points on Monday Night to secure a victory and ended up with a truckload. They’ve solidified themselves as the #1 offense and their defense has been on the rise as of late. They have been lying quiet all year, but as the defending league champs, they’ll be a beast to take down. Looking at a first round home game vs. whoever ends up #3.


Jacksonville Meth Addicts
Record: 6-5-1 (T-3rd place, Eastern Conference)
Remaining Schedule: Nuggets (5-7)
Conference Record: 4-3-1
Power Ranking: 4th (Off: 4th, Def: 5th)
Tie Breakers Held: Beavers (head-to-head); Sasquatch (conference record)
What needs to Happen: A win and a Birmingham loss gets them into the playoffs.
Outlook: Their 3-game win streak has come at the right time as they have now pulled into a tie with the Baconators for 3rd place. They have a tough game with Vegas coming up, but win or lose they just need to stay tied with Birmingham to force a tie break. The Meth are currently +130 up on the Bacon in the offensive points tie break.


Birmingham Baconators
Record: 6-5-1 (T-3rd place, Eastern Conference)
Remaining Schedule: Predators (5-5-2)
Conference Record: 4-3-1
Power Ranking: 8th (Off: 10th, Def: 2nd)
Tie Breakers Held: Beavers (conference record)
What needs to Happen: A win and a Jacksonville loss gets them into the playoffs.
Outlook: Real bad loss against the Bunnies last week puts them behind the 8-ball with one game to go. Their defense remains stellar, but the 3rd tie break vs. Jacksonville goes to offensive points scored, where they currently rank last. They still have a realistic chance of making the playoffs, but they need both a win and Meth loss to get there.


Boston Beavers
Record: 3-8-1 (5th place, Eastern Division)
Remaining Schedule: @Bunnies(5-6-1)
Conference Record: 1-6-1
Power Ranking: 10th (Off: 9th, Def: 8th)
Tie Breakers Held: none
What needs to Happen: Mathematically eliminated
Outlook: Put up a decent fight last week against the Predators, but couldn’t pull out the win. They do have a hand in determining who goes to the playoffs with a battle in Carson City this week. They also still have a chance to get the #1 overall pick in the draft if they lose and the Heat beat the Toast.



WESTERN CONFERENCE


Compton Burger Kings
Record: 6-5-1 (1st place, Western Division)
Remaining Schedule: @Sasquatch (8-4)
Conference Record: 5-2-1
Power Ranking: 6th (Off: 7th, Def: 4th)
Tie Breakers Held: Bunnies, Nuggets (head-to-head); Predators, Heat (conference record)
What needs to Happen: They’ve clinched the #2 seed; a win or tie or a Portland loss wins them the division.
Outlook: They couldn’t stand up to an Eastern conference opponent yet again, dropping their all-time record against the East to 4-8. They still haven’t wrapped up the division and now must play a tough Sasquatch team with the division on the line.


Portland Predators
Record: 5-5-2 (2nd place, Western Conference)
Remaining Schedule: @Baconators (6-5-1)
Conference Record: 3-3-2
Power Ranking: 7th (Off: 5th, Def: 9th)
Tie Breakers Held: Heat, Bunnies (head-to-head)
What needs to Happen: A win and Compton loss to win the division. A win, or Carson City and/or Vegas loss to make the playoffs.
Outlook: They are the only other team that has a chance at winning the division, and there is also a possibility they could be out entirely. They have a big battle with the Bacon this week in a game that will swing the races of both conferences.


Carson City Bunnies
Record: 5-6-1 (3rd place, Western Division)
Remaining Schedule: Beavers (3-8-1)
Conference Record: 3-4-1
Power Ranking: 9th (Off: 6th, Def: 10th)
Tie Breakers Held: Heat (head-to-head)
What needs to Happen: A win will get them into the playoffs. A win and Portland loss will get them 2nd, a loss and Vegas loss will get them 3rd.
Outlook: They did their job last week and watched the East pick off Vegas, which allowed them to jump into 3rd place. They have what appears to be an easy game remaining against Boston and just need to continue to win and wait for the teams around them to fall.


Las Vegas Nuggets
Record: 5-7 (4th place, Western Conference)
Remaining Schedule: @Meth Addicts (6-5-1)
Conference Record: 5-3
Power Ranking: 3rd (Off: 3rd, Def: 6th)
What needs to Happen: They need to win and Portland and/or Carson City to lose to make the playoffs. If they win and both teams lose, they can clinch 2nd place.
Outlook: The bad luck they had last year seems to be suddenly coming back like a bad rash. 5 and 6 pt losses while scoring over 120pts each of the last 2 weeks puts them on the outside needing some help to get in. If they can pull out one more victory and hope one of the other two teams ahead of them fall, they can make the playoffs. Otherwise, it’s another heart-break season with nothing to show for it.

San Diego Heat
Record: 2-8-2 (5th place, Western Division)
Remaining Schedule: Toast (9-2-1)
Conference Record: 1-5-2
Power Ranking: 5th (Off: 8th, Def: 3rd)
Tie Breakers Held: Burger Kings (head-to-head)
What needs to Happen: Mathematically eliminated.
Outlook: The Heat have had an all around tough luck season. Having to endure the mess of a team Steve A. built, they were already salary cap strapped coming in. Brian Westbrook was injured most of the season and their franchise back DeAngelo Williams never became a significant factor, resulting in only 2 wins and 2 ties all year. On the bright side, they may have found the defensive rookie of the year in Brian Cushing, and are on the inside track at getting the #1 pick in next year’s draft. Keep your head up Mr. Looby, maybe next year your team will be good enough to get an invite from President Obama.

Mid Year Review

The season is past the halfway point now and teams are starting to come into form. The 2nd half of the season will be focused on playoff battles, fine tuning trouble spots, and for some, preparing for next year. But for now, let’s review how the teams did in the first half.
The report cards are based on a scientific formula ranking each team against the others in the league by position, record and power/luck rankings. Since not all positions and stats are considered as important as other in fantasy football, a weighting system was also incorporated to balance things out. As stated, these grades were calculated based on complex mathematical equations, not subjective opinions, so if you don’t like them, then come up with your own formula.

Champaign Toast: A
The Toast boast the best linebacker and cornerback cores in the league to justify their #1 ranked defense. They have the best record at the halfway point, along with reclaiming the top spot in the power rankings in week 7. They do appear a bit weak at running back and safety, but overall are clearly the top team in the league.

Mount Savage Sasquatch: B+
The defending champs have slipped a bit from last year after the quick start they had to this season, but are still doing well enough to be considered the 2nd best team in the league. They are near the top in the traditional fantasy football power positions (QB/RB/WR) and are 3rd in the power rankings. However, their defense has eroded considerably from last year and their kicking game and tight end play have been weak thus far, dragging them down.

Jacksonville Meth Addicts: B
It’s hard to believe a last place team could be the 3rd best team in the league, but their #2 power ranking coupled with the worst luck in the league explains this discrepancy. They currently have one of the best running games, and are near the top at the safety position. Only trouble on special teams and their unfortunate record prevented them from getting a higher grade.

Birmingham Baconators: B
After a very strong start to the year they’ve cooled off a bit, but still rank near the top in Kicking, D-line, running back and tight end production. They have the #2 defense in the league, however, their weakness at this point is coming from their QB and WR positions. They are dead last in quarterback production, which has hurt their offensive power rankings and may have cost them a few wins. They are still tied for the 2nd best record in the league and easily are in the upper half of the league.

Carson City Bunnies: B-
Carson City may be middle of the pack here, but they are the best ranked team in the Western Conference. They currently own the #1 quarterback, D-line and safety group in the league and their wide receivers are near the top. The weakness at this point is their linebacker core (due in part to the loss of Urlacher) and special teams units are both last in the league. These extremes even out to be right near the middle of the grade curve.

Compton Burger Kings: B-
The fact that they play in the West may be helping their ranking here. Their team has excelled at the kicker, linebacker, and punter positions, but may have partly gotten the record they have with a bit of luck, since they are right now at the top of the Clover meter. Quarterback and defensive line have been a disappointment this year, which makes their preseason trade with the Sasquatch (DL-Peppers for QB-Ryan) seem like a bust for them. Their running back carousel has only produced middle of the pack numbers so far.

San Diego Heat: C
Despite having the worst record in the league, their team does not appear to be in all that bad of shape. They currently rank above three other teams in the power rankings and have the 2nd best linebacking crew in the league. They’ve been a bit short on luck so far, as they are 3rd from the bottom on the clover meter, and they’ll need to step up play at a few positions, most notably tight end where they rank last.

Las Vegas Nuggets: C
Running back has been a bit of an issue so far this year, and their big contract defensive line has to this point let them down. They are currently 2nd from the bottom in the power rankings, but have managed to keep the boat afloat better than they did last year. Part of their limited success has been due to the wide receiver and tight end positions, which they currently rank first. They’ve also managed to do a bit better on defense this year, with high production coming from their secondary.

Portland Predators: C-
Portland is second worst only to Jacksonville in luck so far, but unlike the Meth Addicts they’ve paired that with the worst power ranking in the league. Also unlike Jacksonville, they have managed to pick their spots and have a better record, even leading the conference at one point. But trouble has caught up with them as they are last in safety and wide receiver production and have the 2nd worst linebackers in the league.

Boston Beavers: D
The luck all ran out this year as the Beavers are calculated to be the worst team in the league. Coming in last in cornerback production and 2nd to last in running back and safety production, along with the worst record in the conference has tumbled the team all the way down to the basement. They shouldn’t consider the season a total loss though, because due to their savvy signing of Shane Lechler, they hold the top spot in Punter production.

*Detail on these mid-season grades will be found on the 2nd tab of the Power Ranking file after Week 8’s Power Ranking update

Week 3 Recap

Champaign Toasts the Burgers
My how the mighty have fallen. Number one in the power rankings after week 1, the Burger Kings have not reached the century mark now two weeks in a row, dropping their 2nd straight game 108-83. After benching Frank Gore in week 2, he was given the start this week and promptly injured himself in the first quarter. Their offensive leader Tony Gonzalez played as if he were hurt too, putting up 0 points as well. Compton’s high scorer on offense was their kicker, David Akers with 13 pts, nearly half their offensive output. The Toast have consistently scored between 100 and 110 points each of the first 3 weeks, and this week it was good enough for the win. With 4 starters in double digits and another solid defensive output, they coasted to their 2nd win of the season and pull into a tie for 2nd place in the conference.

Meth Addicts Smoke the Beavers for First Franchise Win
Jacksonville finally recorded their first franchise win this week, handily beating the Beavers by 34 points. The Meth dominated on defense, scoring a season high 59pts on D despite the injury to Justin Tuck. Jacksonville is #3 in the power rankings despite their 0-2 start, and they earned an easy win after two tough losses. After an opening week win, the Beavers have hit some rough times. Scoring less than 40pts on both sides of the ball, they have dropped to last in the power rankings through 3 weeks. The Beavers have been mainly hurt by the slow starts from the four main players integral to their playoff run last year: Steve Smith, Randy Moss, Will Forte and Clinton Portis, who have 0 TDs combined.

Vegas slips Past the Carson City to Win the Round 1 Battle of Nevada
The Nuggets were able to climb out of a 20pt hole on Monday night to shoot past the Bunnies for their 2nd win of the year. It was games like this they lost with regularity a year ago, but this year behind the arm of Tony Romo, solid WR play and their rookie RB, they were able to come out with a win that puts them in a tie for the top spot in the conference. The Bunnies did not get their 5 game road trip off to a good start with the loss in Vegas. This is the 2nd year in a row the Bunnies have gone into Vegas and lost. Peyton Manning’s 25pts was enough to get the team a late lead, but there was little help from anyone else to hold off the charging Nuggets. Jared Allen was the only other player in double digits and they’ve now fallen to 8th in the power rankings.

Birmingham stomps the ‘Squatch to Stay Undefeated
The game of the week pitted the two remaining undefeated teams from the Eastern Conference. The Baconators managed to weather the Monday night storm and hand the Sasquatch their first loss since moving to Mount Savage. The Bacon also become the only undefeated team left in the league and sit atop the conference at 3-0. Their success has been a full team effort so far, with the WR’s leading the way this week, both posting double digit scores. Elvis Dumervil continued to power their #1 ranked defense with 11 pts this week. For the Squatch, they had a rough week as the Drew Brees to Marquis Colston connection failed for the first time this year. As they always do, they were able to pick up the slack with significant production from other players, as MJD posted 3 TDs and 27pts, but it was their defense that let them down. Their D-line scored a combined 2pts and usually reliable DeMarcus Ware had only 2pts resulting in just 27pts from their D. The loss drops them into a 2nd place tie with the Toast and makes their week 9 rematch with the Bacon that much more significant for them.

Heat Burned Again by Portland
The Heat still cannot get off the schnide as they drop their 3rd straight divisional game, the 2nd they’ve lost at home. Early season injuries have already taken a toll for the salary strapped Heat, and franchise player DeAngelo Williams has not helped the team out much so far. They did sport a balanced attack in week 3, scoring 40pts on both offense and defense, but scoring less than 85pts will not win many games. They are the only winless team in the FFLA and have to host Birmingham next week. As for Portland, they were able to pull out the win despite their 2 WRs and TE posting 0 pts. Aaron Rogers led the way with 22pts, along with 14 from their punter, to take advantage of the slumping Heat. This was their 2nd road win in a row, and they will now go home in a tie for first place in the conference.